Breakout Candidates for Each NHL Team

A star player always starts somewhere. Whether it’s immediately joining the league and instantly dominating, or taking their time and working their way up from the bottom, the stars always find a way to make a name for themselves in the league.

These players always have something called a “breakout season” when they have finally break out of their shell and reveal themselves as a true star. Sometimes these breakout seasons can happen early in a player's career, for example their rookie season or their sophomore and third year. Rarely does a player break out late into his career, but in those cases we call these types of players “late bloomers” and more rudely, “slow developers”.

Late bloomers habitually break into their star-like game in their fifth or sixth season, which could be their mid to late 20s ranging to late 30s. Late bloomers adjust to the game differently because they witness and play hockey divergent compared to the young guns causing them to find their star power and capability of scoring later into their careers. Sporadically late bloomers only remodel their skill set because of a change of scenery.

A change of scenery could be crucial to a player wanting to get the best out of their abilities being that a player could be unhappy or doleful with their respected team. It doesn’t necessarily mean it’s the management group or the coaching staff and players causing this player to feel dejected. A great deal of the time it’s because the player doesn’t feel comfortable or feels out of place with the team or the city he resides in. Sometimes both. It’s important to remember vocational athletes are human too and they have priorities when it comes to family and their lifestyles. Conceivably it’s a family issue causing the player wanting out or better yet a player not seeing a future success with the team.

In the end, not every player has a breakout season and not every player exceeds expectations. In fact a very diminutive amount of players reach that potential because the majority of hockey players throughout the National Hockey League never pan out to be superstars. The chances of a team getting lucky and having a player break out are quite negligible and almost impossible to predict, but in this article we did it anyway.

This article will see us go through all 31 teams and use advanced analytics and basic theory to attempt to predict a breakout candidate player from each NHL team. There are some slight rules to this article though which we will go over below.

Rule one: What is a breakout candidate worthy of?

A player is considered a breakout candidate if he hasn’t had a season where we have seen him hit his top notch potential. Several of the players we’ve got written down have already had 40-50 point seasons, but that isn’t fundamentally a breakout season because that’s the very least that player is capable of. For some players that 40-50 point mark could be their breakout, and for others it may be just the starting point.

Rule two: Age And experience

To be considered a candidate for a breakout season, a player must play a minimum of 25 regular season NHL games, meaning that playoff games do not count. A player under that amount is still a rookie by NHL standards, and in this article we’ll focus less on the Calder-like players and more on the players who’ve had their experience in the league and now are looking to elevate their game and take it to the next step rather than coming in and dominating quickly.

As for age, there isn’t a minimum or maximum age for a breakout season. As mentioned earlier a breakout season can happen at whatever point in a player’s career therefore age doesn’t necessarily play into a candidate’s chances and availability to become a breakout player.

With all that being in mind, here is one breakout candidate from each NHL team.

•••

Anaheim Ducks- Sam Steel, C/LW

Age: 23

2020-21 Stats: 42 GP, 6G, 6A, 12 PTS

Career Stats: 129 GP, 18G, 27A, 45 PTS

2020-21 WAR: 15%

(Photo credit: Jeff Gritchen / MediaNews Group, Orange County Register via Getty Images)

The 23 year-old former first round pick hasn’t quite found his rhythm in the NHL ever since he joined the Anaheim Ducks in 2018. Steel has played over 100 career games, yet hasn’t hit the 30 point mark in those three seasons quite yet.

When Sam was drafted by the Ducks 30th overall in the 2016 NHL entry draft, he was momentarily coming off of a 70 point season in the WHL with the Regina Pats. The Ducks saw potential and it was clear that they made the correct choice when Steel had 131 points in 66 games the following season in the WHL, which happened to be only one point away from a two PPG rate.

A player like that was surely going to be the steal of the draft and looked like one of the most promising prospects the NHL held in general prospect rankings. Steel played his final junior game with the Pats in 2018 and after that he was off to the AHL for some extra development. The 2018-19 season saw Sam Steel split time in the AHL and NHL. (22 games in the NHL and 55 in the AHL). In Steel’s first and only season in the AHL he had 41 points in 55 games played. That performance was good enough to earn Steel a spot on the Ducks where he played 22 games and had 11 points. Not a bad start to his career for a late first round pick.

The following year in 2019-20 had Steel record 22 points in 65 games which was definitely improbable considering he had twice as less points in three times less games as the season previous. This latest season might’ve been one of the worst seasons Steel probably had in his entire life.

Sam Steel had a mere 12 points in 42 games and finished the season with a wins above replacement (WAR percentile rank) of 15%, which is AHL level for a playoff team’s consideration. Steel also had an expected goals for of 37% and an expected goals against of an 18%. These stats are horrendous and visibly show improper development and for Steel to reach his complete potential he needs to work on these issues that seem minor, but aren’t. Steel’s statistics are all below average, except for two categories; his finishing (or better yet shooting) and his goals/60. His G/60 is up at 51%, just 1% above the average player and his finishing up top at 84%, which does indicate that his shooting is visibly present and he’s got a great shot.

Sam Steel’s great shot can be used to his advantage next season. The Ducks have a ton of salary cap space going into free agency, so they should attempt to bring in some high level talent to help these young stars become the players they were drafted to be. Sam Steel is one of the main players the Ducks should be looking to improve because at 23 years of age Steel is entering the “late bloomer” stage and if he isn’t getting more support on and off the ice, we can see Steel exit Anaheim and possibly break out elsewhere.

In good news, the Ducks are one of the front runners for Jack Eichel, and if Steel can theoretically get some games on Eichel’s wing this year he can get some points and his offence will improve.

Eichel isn’t the only reasoning as to why Steel could have a breakout season. Steel needs more minutes and needs more experience. If Sam can play more minutes and expand his game to another level defensively, the point production will come and Steel will break out. Steel is only 23 and he is going into an off-season where he will receive a one year deal, and you should never underestimate a player on a final year of a contract. Steel won’t receive an offer from the Ducks for more than one year at one million due to his unruly past. Young players like Steel aren’t usually fans of signing short term deals at very cheap prices, so I don’t see why Steel won’t understand his time is running short in Anaheim and will pick up his paceup. With that logic, I think Steel will breakout and have himself a 50-60 point season in a full 82 game season.

•••

Arizona Coyotes- Clayton Keller, W/C

Age: 22

2020-21 Stats: 56 GP, 14G, 21A, 35 PTS

Career Stats: 293 GP, 68G, 125A, 193 PTS

2020-21 WAR: 44%

(Photo credit: AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

Here’s our first example of a player who’s played at a good scoring pace and visibly has good offensive skill (71% EV OFF) but hasn’t entirely reached his full potential.

Clayton Keller was drafted by the Arizona Coyotes seventh overall in the 2016 NHL entry draft right from the US national development team. Keller was coming off of a 37 point year in 23 games and was committed to one year of college hockey at Boston University. The attention was real and Keller’s hype was there for him after a 45 point season in Boston. Keller managed to show what he was capable of achieving offensively after scoring 21 goals in 31 games and it was unambiguous the Coyotes were getting a good egg.

The Coyotes wanted to bring in Keller very late into the 2016-17 season (same twelvemonth as his astounding season in Boston) and wanted to give him three games of seasoning before heading into his first official NHL season. In the three games Keller played he had two assists. He was undoubtedly a player to keep an eye on the next season because of his early dominance.

That hype and potential got off to an admirable start. The first portion of his rookie season in 2017-18 Keller was at a point per game pace and was scoring goals in every which way. That all came to a halt in the second half where Keller went from being a Calder candidate to not even being nominated. Clayton didn’t produce and it was obvious he wasn’t trying. Coyotes fans weren’t impressed with the second half of that season and there was a sense that his laziness and his slowing down was caused by his being disgruntled with the team’s performance. Keller finished the season with 65 points in 82 games. That would be his best season up to date, but we can’t consider that a breakout year because of how the second portion of that season went by for him.

Ever since that fall Keller slowed down majorly and hasn’t hit 50 points ever again. Keller went with a stat line of 47 points, 44 points, and 35 points in his next three seasons. When you’re paying a guy 7.2 million for the next 7 years you’d preferably like him to produce more and have better defensive stats. Keller’s EV DEF this year was at a 37% which is inexcusable. A player like Keller needs to take leadership on both sides of the ice and he needs to get the hard parts in Arizona. The Coyotes aren’t a good team, they need a two way guy who can score goals and be the first to defend. Keller isn’t that whatsoever. His powerplay is atrocious, he very rarely gets the main assist and his shooting is awful. He’s a lucky player who isn’t at his potential.

This year I expect Keller to be a different player. Keller might feel his time in Arizona could be shortened and he might receive less playing time than he already has if he doesn’t produce. Clayton has it in him, we’ve seen it before. That feisty goal scorer who loves to excel his game is in him and he’s completely capable of being a good player. It’s a long road but it’s achievable. The Coyotes will look to make improvements to their roster this year and if Keller can get better wing support or a better player down the middle his life might get easier. Keller’s underperformance and the unhappiness from the fans may be his motivation to get better, and that’s why I think Keller finally extends his game further and we can see his WAR percentile skyrocket from 44% to an 80% and his points go up to as much as 80 in a full 82 game season. Keller is completely capable of that, and as soon as he elevates his game that 7.2 million dollar contract will look much better for the Coyotes.

•••

Boston Bruins- Jeremy Lauzon, D

Age: 24

2020-21 Stats: 41 GP, 1G, 7A, 8 PTS

Career Stats: 76 GP, 3G, 8A, 11 PTS

2020-21 WAR: 42%

(Photo credit: Fansided)

That 2015 NHL draft for the Boston Bruins was utterly horrible, just ask any Bruins fan. The 2015 draft alone has the potential to be one of the best and deepest drafts of all time. Players like Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, Mitch Marner and Sebastian Aho were all a part of that draft. Having even one first draft pick in that draft could change your entire franchise for good. Now imagine having three first round draft picks in the arguably best draft class ever. The Bruins had picks number 13, 14 and 15. With those picks they chose Jakob Zboril, Jake DeBrusk and Zach Senyshyn. Only one of those players became NHL regulars. To add salt to the wound, the following three players that were drafted were Mat Barzal, Kyle Connor and Thomas Chabot.

In the second round of the draft the Boston Bruins picked up Canadian defenceman Jeremy Lauzon. Lauzon was recently coming off of 36 point season in the QMJHL and was looking to improve offensively. Lauzon had all the tools defensively and was looking to become a better player in the O zone less than the D zone. That worked well as in the next season Lauzon had 50 points in 46 games and the year after had 28 points in 39 games. That talent was enough to earn him a spot on Boston’s AHL team the next year, but he only had 7 points in 52 games. His offence wasn’t there and he couldn’t generate any offence. At least his defensive play was still exceptional so the Bruins still considered him a top notch prospect.

In 2018-19, Lauzon split time between the NHL and the AHL. Lauzon had the same exact stat line in the AHL as the year before except he played only 29 games. Lauzon got called up and potted a goal in 16 games. 2019-20 was the same story as he split time between the big leagues and the AHL.

This season Lauzon finally used his defensive skill to land a permanent spot on the Bruins roster and played 41 games and had eight points. Lauzon’s defence was up at 55% and his offence at 43% this year and his WAR percentile at a respectable 42%.

Lauzon has the potential to be one of Boston’s best defensive defencemen. The Bruins don’t have too many players who are expected to have a breakout season in 2021-22. Most of their players that are capable of doing that have less than 25 games meaning that our best bet is Jeremy Lauzon. Realistically, Lauzon will be an NHL regular and may be an underrated defensive player but that won’t be for another two years. The chances of him breaking out this year are quite low, but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen. Lauzon will have his breakout season, although it may or may not be this year. The only reason he is on this list now is that he’s the best choice out of everyone in Boston. Lauzon will be a fantastic and serviceable defensive defenceman in the future, and it’ll happen in the next two years. This could be another case of a late bloomer.

•••

Buffalo Sabres- Andres Bjork, LW

Age: 24

2020-21 Stats: 45 GP, 5G, 6A, 11 PTS

Career Stats: 153 GP, 19G, 26A, 45 PTS

2020-21 WAR: 68%

(Photo credit: TheCanadianPress)

Moving on from Taylor Hall and seemingly receiving nothing in return could have been a blessing in disguise for the Buffalo Sabres. When the Buffalo Sabres traded away star forward Taylor Hall on the eve of the 2021 NHL trade deadline, they received a 24 year-old American-born winger named Anders Bjork. Anders Bjork wasn’t heavily favoured by Boston Bruins fans, in fact the Bruins fans were quite pleased with Bjork getting moved. Bjork never generated any offence in Boston and was notoriously poor offensively. He never put up big numbers or scored big goals but he was silently one of the better defensive forwards on the Bruins and helped out in the defensive and neutral zone.

The matter with defensive play is that it’ll never be noticed by the simple eye test with it. It’s something you don’t notice easily, but it’s a significant part of hockey and an important role of an estimable player.

Bjork was a 5th round pick from 2014 who took a while to make it to the NHL and when he did the point production was non-existent. It may have had something to do with him not getting ice time or getting the chances other young players did, but there was a visible difference once Bjork’s time in Boston ended and his time in Buffalo began. Not only did Bjork’s defence stay highly above average, but his offensive skill spiked up and his name started to appear on the scoreboard more often. Bjork solely played 15 games with Buffalo this past season and in those 15 games he had six points. To compare, he had one more point in Buffalo in exactly twice as less games as he had in Boston that season alone.

A transition to Buffalo from Boston is tough enough for anyone on Earth, but to get better as well is beyond impressive. Bjork may have found his new home and if he continues his play from the end of the 2020-21 season onto the upcoming season, he has the potential to be one of the biggest breakout players next season.

We heretofore recognize that Bjork’s defence is top notch (graph above for further proof), but his offensive skill needed improvement. The offensive numbers did go up once he arrived in Buffalo and if he feels comfortable next year as he did this year and as soon as he gets his development, Bjork might be a semi-late bloomer next season. I personally really like Bjork and I’ve understood Boston’s frustration with his offensive skill but I believe if Bjork gets his ice time next year we can see a rapid increase in his offence and we can imagine his WAR percentile go from 68% to 75%. Bjork needs to master the offensive side of the game and if he does, that could be a Selke candidate worthy player. Yes, this is a hot take, I realize that. Although if he’s capable of it I don’t see why it can’t happen.

That being said, Anders Bjork has the potential to revive his career and record between 40 and 60 points next year while still being one of the best shutdown players on the Buffalo Sabres next year.

•••

Calgary Flames- Andrew Mangiapane, W/C

Age: 25

2020-21 Stats: 56 GP, 18G, 14A, 32 PTS

Career Stats: 178 GP, 43G, 34A, 77 PTS

2020-21 WAR: 92%

(Photo credit: NHL)

Some would argue Mangiapane has already broken out and has already become one of Calgary’s best players but many others won’t admit that. Mangiapane had himself a fantastic season analytically and was visibly an amazing player, but the point production never actually showed it, thereofor derailing his value to some fans. Even though 32 points in 56 games is still worthy of a breakout, I believe Mangiapane is about to have a season worth remembering, and a season that will make his 2020-21 season look sadder than Ryan Kesler seconds after the final horn rang in game seven in 2011.

Sorry.

Mangiapane has everything going righteous for him systematically. His WAR percentile is at a 92%, his evaluated offence sits at an impressive 90 and his defence may be one of the best we’ve seen from a young forward at 96. Mangiapane has the potential to be a star in the near future and with his recent improvements this next season there is always that high gamble that he could take his game to a next step point production-wise.

Andrew has a fantastic shot, his finishing is at 80% after the 2020-21 season. Scoring goals isn't new to him because throughout his entire pro career he’s managed to score more goals than assists per season. If Mangiapane can continue to pot in goals and be a steady goal tallier, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him hit the 65 point mark next season along with 30 to 35 goals.

•••

Carolina Hurricanes- Morgan Geekie, C

Age: 22

2020-21 Stats: 36 GP, 3G, 6A, 9 PTS

Career Stats: 38 GP, 6G, 7A, 13 PTS

2020-21 WAR: 24%

(Photo credit: NHL)

Morgan Geekie unexpectedly shocked the league at the end of the 2019-20 season (or better yet before the world was put on hold) when he played his very first two games and scored not one, not two, but three goals in two games and also notched an assist for a total of four points in that time. Life was great for Geekie until Covid struck the Earth and the season was cut short. Geekie did end up playing eight games in the bubble during the playoffs with Carolina but went goal-less and only had one assist.

The reason as to why the once third round pick got called up at the end of the season was because the last two seasons for Geekie in the AHL went tremendously. In 2018-19 Geekie had 46 points in 73 games played, which happened to be his rookie season and the following season had 42 points in 55 games. Geekie looked to be a draft steal and the Hurricanes fans were excited to see the youngster tear up the league only three years after his draft year.

That was the case for the youngster until this season. Geekie commenced the 2020-21 season off very slowly offensively and failed to net some goals in and flopped to generate any offence. Defensively wise, he was better than he was in the O zone yet was still invisible and failed to show up in big case scenarios. Many fans predicted Geekie would slowly dismiss his point percentage and skill after his disappointing playoff run in the NHL bubble, but many remained with their high hopes. Realistically put, fans should never give these sorts of young players this much attention and exposure including these high expectations because it’s unrealistic to see a 21 year-old third round draft pick continue his 2.0 PPG average the next season and sl on and so forth.

That hype was leveraged to Geekie earlier on this season and clearly failed to live up to those expectations that the fans had set for him. Geekie struggled offensively and defensively as well as his power play was below average and his goal scoring was simply non-existent. Geekie suffered a great deal compared to his first two games and it was conspicuous Geekie was rushed into the league when he could have had more time to develop and become more NHL ready.

That’s exactly what the Canes thought until they sent Morgan to the Chicago Wolves of the AHL, and identically to his first season, Geekie was given only two games before he was told “you’re too good for this league, go take the next step” and dragged him back up to Raleigh.

Geekie’s evaluated offence was only 17% this season which is explainable due to the fact that he suffered on so many levels offensively. One of those levels being the point production. Morgan Geekie had only 9 points in 36 games and had the same amount of goals in the previous season in only three games compared to the 12 times amount of games played this season. The other offensive issue that Geekie suffered with was his shooting. His finishing percentile was at a 44, which is six points below average.

The graph above shows Geekie’s shooting and shots taken over the course of the 2020-21 season. The amount of shots that Morgan took were simply not enough. They may have hit the net often and might have been decent shots, but the offence isn’t there and that will be the main reason as to why Geekie suffered.

Although Geekie may have had a horrible and disheartening season, he’s on the right track with his training and development. We already experienced that Geekie has made the NHL as a bottom line-13th forward but is he ready to take on the NHL? The short and sweet answer to that query is, yes. Geekie has been non stop improving year after year and if the Hurricanes give Geekie his ice time and support him in any way that Geekie needs, he can have a breakout year in the 2021-22 season. Morgan is competent to make the next step and he is capable of improving his WAR percentile from a 22 to somewhere in the high 60s and low 70s. If Geekie can snap back to his old self and surround himself with a better supportive cast, he can unquestionably be a 50 point player which is what he is projected to be throughout his NHL career.

•••

Chicago Blackhawks- Adam Boqvist, D

Age: 20

2020-21 Stats: 35 GP, 2G, 14A, 16 PTS

Career Stats: 76 GP, 6G, 23A, 29 PTS

2020-21 WAR: 61%

(Photo credit: NBC)

Adam Boqvist finally had himself a chance to prove to the NHL this year that he was worthy of that 8th overall pick and suddenly an injury struck Boqvist and caused him to miss the remainder of the season. Before Boqvist suffered his injury he was having himself a career best year recording two goals and 14 assists in 35 games for a total of 16 points. The offensive skill and the points were there, but was Boqvist an exemplary player all around like fans say he was?

We previously knew that Boqvist was there to help his teammates out with his assists, but the defensive play was non-existent.

The graph above proves to us Adam Boqvist failed to show up defensively as his EV DEF was a 25%, which is something you do not want from a defenceman whatsoever. Boqvist has always been a fantastic offensive defenceman, but quite obviously a one dimensional defenceman once you look at his complete play rather than his points. Other than his powerplay and defensive skill, Adam has everything going benevolent from him. His wins above replacement percentile sits at 61%, his offence at an impressive 88%, and his shot along with his first-assist ability are both positives when it comes to comparing him to the average replacement player in the NHL.

The 20 year-old has completely recovered from the injury and is reportedly out on the ice and in the gym daily getting his off-season training in and through. If Boqvist can get more minutes with the big guns like DeBrincat and Kane, you can see his points rapidly increase. If Boqvist can improve his defensive play he may as well be one of the most underrated players in the league. Boqvist is still young and to count him as a bust now would be more than unfair not only to him, but every U21 player who hasn’t reached that level of elite quite yet.

With the right training and the better defensive partners, Boqvist can finally take the next step next year and might finally break into the high scoring defenceman he was drafted to be in 2018.

•••

Colorado Avalanche- Dennis Gilbert, D

Age: 24

2020-21 Stats: 3 GP, 0G, 0A, 0 PTS

Career Stats; 25 GP, 1G, 2A, 3 PTS

2020-21 WAR: N/A

(Photo credit: Steve Marcus)

Dennis Gilbert played three games this season with the Colorado Avalanche which is basically nothing, but out of the viable options on the Avalanche roster, Gilbert was the only one who stuck out to me when making this decision.

As an unknown defenceman, Gilbert spent most of the past season splitting time between the Avalanche regular roster, their taxi squad, and their AHL team the Colorado Eagles. Gilbert’s main aspect is to stay at home and defend all rushes, but he’s mostly focused his attention on dropping the gloves and sticking up for his teammates at the NHL level. When Gilbert plays, he uses his big body as his main weapon. He’s only 6’2 (saying only because that’s just a tad taller than what an average player in the NHL stands at) but weighs at a monstrous 216 pounds. This gigantic shutdown defenseman has been slowly making his way to the NHL ever since being drafted out of USHL by the Blackhawks in 2015. Gilbert never panned out for the Hawks but most 22 of his 25 career games were spent in Chicago.

Pragmatically, Gilbert doesn’t have a certain degree of potential as some players on this list do. He’s entering the end of his prime and he’s mainly spent his time sitting in the press box eating peanuts. Either that, or he’s spending his games playing for numerous AHL teams. Gilbert needs to get in more games and needs to play better defensively because right now that offence is going nowhere.

The RAPM chart from evolvinghockey shows us that in his 18 minutes of ice time this season, Gilbert played as the average replacement player in the NHL. That’s decent if you’re in Colorado, but if a player like him can end up in Buffalo, not only will he end up playing the full 82 games, but he can also have the opportunity to have his very own breakout season.

Gilbert’s potential is a seventh defenceman at best, and if he can end up on a worse team and get minutes there, he can break the barriers of that potential and become an average, big hitting, shutdown defenceman who doesn’t get more than 20 points a season but still ends up being a very useful asset. The ceiling is low for Gilbert, but I would be sure that next year he takes a step up and earns a spot as an extra defenceman on a good team, or a bottom line guy for a non-playoff team.

•••

Columbus Blue Jackets- Emil Bemstrom, C/RW

Age: 22

2020-21 Stats: 20 GP, 3G, 2A, 5 PTS

Career Stats: 76 GP, 13G, 12A, 25 PTS

2020-21 WAR: 52%

(Photo credit: AP Photo/Paul Vernon)

If you were to ask me one year ago who would have had a breakout season for Columbus in the 2020-21 NHL season, I would have said Emil Bemstrom without hesitation. Personally, I have always been fond of Emil Bemstrom because of his overachieving defensive play that always goes unnoticed. Defence is a very big part of hockey, and when it comes to forwards it’s usually not a big deal to people. The way I see it, is that two way forwards will always be better than the one dimensional offensive players who rack up useless points every year and simply do not defend.

Bemstrom is not one of those players. Even though he had quite the off-year in 2020-21 (unexpectedly), he still remained one of Columbus’ best two way players and arguably their most underrated forward behind Eric Robinson.

Bemstrom was drafted in the fourth round of the 2017 NHL draft out of the SweHL where he played 5 games but went scoreless. Emil didn’t make an impact in the NHL until 2019-20 when he played 56 games and recorded 10 goals, 10 assists, and 20 points. Bemstrom automatically was an impressive player considering he was not only a fifth round pick from only a couple years ago, but also wasn’t given the best opportunities immediately. After going over a point per game in the SM-Liiga before the start of the 2020-21 NHL regular season, Bemstrom was highly anticipated by Jackets fans and was an easy choice for possible breakout player of the year.

Lamentably, that didn’t happen. Bemstrom’s point production fell off quite a bit, but in positive news his advanced metrics increased and Emil looked to become a better player both offensively and defensively without scoring too many points.

The reason I have Bemstrom as a favourite once again this year is because the Blue Jackets are going to be forced to make the team better next year, and by doing so Bemstrom will seek to play with better players and he may as well stun the league. Can Bemstrom peak his career in the next season? No, not by any means he won’t. Next year could be the start of success for the 22 year forward, and the potential for Bemstrom is all over the place. In my eyes I can see Bemstrom racking up as many as 60 points per year in the future as well as being in the high 90s defensively and high 70s offensively. He won’t necessarily break out into a 60 point player next season, but 40-50 points is completely not out of the conversation for the young Swede, and that would be considered a breakout season by my standards.

•••

Dallas Stars- Jake Oettinger, G

Age: 22

2020-21 Stats: 29 GP, 11W, 8L, 7 OTL, .911 SV%, 2.36 GAA

Career Stats: 29 GP, 11W, 8L, 7 OTL, .911 SV%, 2.36 GAA

2020-21 WAR%: 52%

(Photo credit: Vernon Bryant / Staff Photographer)

Our one and only goaltender on this list is 22 year-old former first round pick Jake Oettinger. Jake Oettinger was drafted by the Dallas Stars 26th overall in 2017 and the pick was quite the clear one. The Stars wanted better goaltending depth and bringing in a younger- highly potential goalie would have been the correct choice for Dallas. Oettinger was coming off of his first year in the NCAA with Boston University where he had 21 wins and only 14 combined losses while staying at .927 save percentage. For that sort of win-loss record, it’s an impressive stat line.

It took Oettinger some time to finally crack the NHL roster, but in the end he made it to the big leagues this season after Ben Bishop was ruled out for the season and the Stars had virtually no other choice. As a rookie goaltender, Oettinger’s stat line was impressive. A .911 save percentage as a 22 year old goalie would have been fantastic rough on it’s own, but imagine that on an underperforming, non playoff team. That is exactly what Jake Oettinger did.

Rumours have it that the Stars are looking to buy out Ben Bishop due to his age and injuries, and since semi-backup goalie Anton Khudobin has been aging as well, it may be time for Oettinger to take the starter’s crease in Dallas. The choice would be too quick to make, but they’re not in a rush, so why not make the leap. Oettinger is only getting better each year, and the thing with goalies is that the more they age the better they become.

Oettinger has some serious potential to be a top 10 goalie in the league in some time, and next year could be the start of it. Dallas’ goalie problems are chaotic, but there is absolutely no way all three of Khudobin, Bishop and Oettinger play together. Most likely this off-season we will see Bishop get bought out and possibly retire. If that happens, we can fully expect Oettinger to take over as Dallas’ number one guy. The chances of Dallas being a playoff team next year are there,and they’re not too far from achievable. If Oettinger can play his heart out, he can single handedly lead them to the playoffs next year and that’s probably what will happen.

Oettinger is ready to be a starting NHL goalie, and next year we will visualize him finally becoming that elite-level goalie he was once supposed to be. At 23 years of age, that’s very impressive and sophisticated for a goaltender in the National Hockey League.

•••

Detroit Red Wings- Jakub Vrana, LW/RW

Age: 25

2020-21 Stats: 40 GP, 19G, 17A, 36 PTS

Career Stats: 295 GP, 84G, 84A, 168 PTS

2020-21 WAR: 91%

(Photo Credit: NHL)

Don’t catch me off guard when I say this, I know that Vrana is already a fantastic winger who hasn’t gotten the best shot to prove himself until getting traded to the Detroit Red Wings, but he hasn’t given himself the best of his abilities. Before I go more in depth on what I mean by that, we need to get a realistic grasp on Vrana and how his play works.

Vrana is a young-ish player who was once a first round pick by the Washington Capitals. When Vrana was first drafted he was anticipated to be the type of player he was once with Washingotn.

Vrana came into the league as a 20 year-old who was ready to take on the bigger challenges with a playoff team after roughly two seasons in the AHL. In those years in the AHL, Vrana exceeded expectations and went almost a point per game average in his first year, and in the second 36 points in 43 games.

It didn’t take long for Vrana to adjust to the NHL level as in his first full year he had almost 40 points and 13 goals. After that season, we saw Vrana finally become the player we see now; a 45-50 point second line winger who was always there to make the first pass and score the big goals when he was needed most. Vrana won the Sanley cup with the Washington Capitals in 2018, a season that saw him record 27 points in 73 games. After that cup run, Vrana became that fantastic top six forward.

Until he was traded along with a first and second round pick to the Detroit Red Wings at the 2021 NHL trade deadline. It was most definitely a confusing move because the season that Vrana was having nothing out of the usual. Vrana had 25 points in 39 games and was doing decently well, but he and Capitals coach Peter Laviolette were having issues that inevitably caused Jakub’s departure.

Jakub was a different breed of human once arriving in Detroit. As soon as he got to the motor city he was given first line minutes and in his short 11 games there, he had eight goals and 11 points. In one of the games, Vrana scored four goals.

Now with that small sample size in Detroit, we can obviously tell that Vrana is more than capable of being a second line winger who scored 50 points a season, and maybe next season we can see him turn into a star, and I would not be shocked to see him hit a point per game average on Larkin’s wing.

•••

Edmonton Oilers- Ethan Bear, D

Age: 24

2020-21 Stats: 43 GP, 2G, 6A, 8 PTS

Career Stats: 132 GP, 8G, 25A, 33 PTS

2020-21 WAR: 72%

(Photo credit: WindSpeaker)

Ethan Bear is certainly one of the most overhated players in the nHL, if not the most overhated. When given the ice time and opportunity, Ethan Bear is a solid shutdown defenceman who can alnda big hir or two, and can also break out that puck when the time is needed. Bear plays all over the lineup in Edmonton, but a player like him and a two way defenceman like him can easily secure a role on the first defence line all over the league.

Ethan Bear may not show up on the scoreboard too often, or at least this season, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t a bad player. I can’t stress enough how useless points are to an evaluation of a player because the natural skill that some non-scorers have goes unnoticed. Ethan Bear is one of them. The god given defensive work he does in his own zone and neutral zone aren’t noticed by Oilers fans, or any fans as a matter of fact, but when he makes a rare turnover the heat goes on him and only him.

2020-21 was Ethan Bear’s big step up from his previous seasons even if it wasn’t that way offensively. Bear’s evaluated defence skyrocketed from a 55% to a 77%, and even though the points don’t say it, his offence spiked up minorly as the evaluated offence raised up from 62% to 67%. Ethan Bear only gets better with time, and the Oilers should do everything in their power to keep him.

2021-22 has to be the season that we see Ethan Bear show up into the top 15 talks for defencemen. Not only will it be a contract year for him, but he’ll also be a year older and more mature with more development. His past shows that he gets better every year and considering this last season was only his second full season, 72% on the wins above replacement scale is impressive and it may as well go up to 90% next season. Ethan bear is a fantastic two way defenceman who needs a better defensive linemate. All his hard work and skill goes unnoticed and Edmonton should not let the fans push a talented player out of the lineup and organization.

•••

Florida Panthers- Owen Tippett, RW

Age: 22

2020-21 Stats: 45 GP, 7G, 11A, 18 PTS

Career Stats: 52 GP, 8G, 11A, 19 PTS

2020-21 WAR: 28%

(Photo Credit: Robert Mayer-USA TODAY Sports)

To call Owen Tippett a bust after four years of him getting drafted in the first round is unfair. Sure, he hasn’t developed quickly for a tenth overall pick and he hasn’t played 100 career games yet, but that doesn’t mean he can still be a good player. Tippett may not be a star defensively, but with an offensive line and more practice of his shooting and goal scoring, he may as well live up to the very offensive styled forward play he was once told to have.

Tippett played his first seven NHL games in 2018 where he had only one goal. After that seven game trial he was sent back to the OHL and the AHL for conditioning. After the NHL stint in 2018 he went over PPG in the OHL and then played in the AHL with the Springfield Thunderbirds where he had 40 points in 46 games.

Those stats prove to us he has it, all he needs is time. Rushing him and giving him the pressure of calling him a bust is slowing his production up. There are many areas he needs to fix but the biggest one would be his shot and goal scoring ability. His finishing (aka shooting) is at 12% which is frankly far too low especially for a player known for his offensive skill. His G/60 is also at an embarrassing 26%, so his shooting must be something he needs to fix. His playmaking is great to be fair. A1/60 is tough to be high for some players around the league, but Tippet’s is at a respectable 87%.

Tippet may need a change of scenery because he has seemed to do well everywhere but Florida. It’s either that or simply more time for Tippett. He’s destined to break out soon and he will be a decent scoring player who can record 50 point seasons. It may not happen in Florida, but he does have it in him and all he needs is a slight push.

•••

Los Angeles Kings- Mikey Anderson, D

Age: 22

2020-21 Stats: 54 GP, 1G, 10A, 11 PTS

Career Stats: 60 GP, 2G, 10A, 12 PTS

2020-21 WAR: 36%

(Photo credit: MayorsManor)

A lot of personal bias went into this pick and it’s for a couple reasons. The biggest reason is that I love my defensive defensemen who have bright futures. I like two way defensemen, but something about d-men that actually defend and play a large part of the team’s succession far more. Mikey Anderson is exactly that. To have a fantastic defensive defenceman who happens to be under 23 is so rare, and not to mention the fact that Anderson played on one of the worst teams in the league too.

Mikey Anderson is so special to the LA Kings and they should absolutely get started on an extension on free agency because locking up this young player for long term and cheap can pay off so well. Many can say that Anderson wouldn’t make a playoff team’s roster, but I believe he can. Mikey’s evaluated defence is 82%, which shows us that the defensive play is easily his most superior stat. His offence may need improvement, as it sits at 5%. As a young player in the league, especially defensemen, they always find themselves excelling in one spot and struggling in the other. That is why I like Mikey. His offence may not be the best, but that defensive play is gorgeous.

Next season will be the season that the Minnesota born 22 year-old gets noticed for his defensive play around the league. Unpopular opinion: the LA Kings will be a very good team next year and make the playoffs. With that attention, Mikey will receive his well deserved recognition for his defensive work and will become a popular target among teams looking for defence. If LA is smart, they’ll hang on to him and not let him go.

I personally hope that the Kings succeed and Mikey along with them because his hard work last season showed us that even if the team may be struggling, a player can shine and a player will be recognized for his skill… at least by some.

•••

Minnesota Wild- Nico Sturm, C

Age: 26

2020-21 Stats: 50 GP, 11G, 6A, 17 PTS

Career Stats: 58 GP, 11G, 8A, 19 PTS

2020-21 WAR: 86%

(Photo Credit: David Berding / USA TODAY Sports)

Give this guy some attention, NHL fans!

Seriously though, for the love of god please give Nico Sturm the credit he deserves. Sturm is the best fourth liner in the entire NHL and may be one of the best bottom six players in the NHL. For some that may seem crazy looking at his basic statistics (only 17 points in 50 games) but the advanced analytics stretch out his skill to another level.

Up top, Jfresh’s player card of Nico Sturm shows us a lot of blue, but also a bit of red. That red is fixable and a minor issue, but let’s shift our attention to his excellent game skills. The first thing we notice is that his WAR percentile is 86%, which is higher than players like Alex Ovechkin and Patrick Kane. His evaluated offence is at a 78% which shows that even if he doesn’t get points he generates offensive play and gets pucks to the net. To furthermore prove his offence and opportunity creating, we need to look at this shot chart from EvolvingHockey.

The amount of shots taken in front of the net are off the charts and if he can continue to play like that he may as well entrer free agency when his contract expires and make up to as much as two million dollars.

Now that we have covered his fascinating offence, we can check out his 90% evaluated defence and 91% PK. Some of the best defensive defencemen in the NHL don’t have as high of a PK and EV DEF as Nico Sturm which shows you how talented of a two way forward Nico is. I’ll always have a grudge that he scored his first NHL goal on my favourite team, the Vancouver Canucks, but I’d be lying if I said I wouldn’t want him on my team.

Nico Sturm is heavily underrated and he needs the attention because the amount of skill a fourth line player like him can hold is amazing. Next year you may as well see Nico explode point wise and have up to 40 points in Minnesota. For 700k that may as well be one of the best contracts in the league, and if he can finally explode and turn into college Nico Sturm, the Wild will surely have to pay him big money in the summer of 2022.

PS: College Nico Sturm had 45 points in 37 games played.

•••

Montreal Canadiens- Jesperi Kotkaniemi, C/LW

Age: 21

2020-21 Stats: 56 GP, 5G, 15A, 20 PTS

Career Stats: 171 GP, 22G, 40A, 62 PTS

2020-21 WAR: 18%

(Photo credit: David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Want another player who is way too early to call a bust and way too early to judge and label? Look no further than former third overall pick Jesperi Kotkaniemi of the Montreal Canadiens. It’s a shame that people do consider him a bust, but frankly we’ve seen what he’s capable of in big moments like the 2021 NHL playoffs for example, and the result is rewarding.

Kotkaniemi may have started his career off very slowly as he’s yet to hit 70% in wins above replacement percentile. His rookie season was definitely a good year as he was at roughly 68% on the WAR%, but also his defensive rankings were in the high 80s and his offence at around the 65 mark. He also showed up with his point production when he hit 34 points in 79 games. The future was bright and then the sophomore season rolled around and people were not happy.

Sophomore slumps are completely normal, we’ve seen some of the best players have them. Although that may be the case, KK’s sophomore season was unbearable compared to his first. His point production fell off so much to the point where he had only eight points in 36 games and only two assists. He was later sent down to the AHL to season with the Laval Rocket where he only scored one goal in 13 games. May need to mention that he did end up going point per game there though.

KK’s defensive play almost fell to a dead 0% and his offence fell to 24%.

This year was undoubtedly better for Kotkaniemi because his point production did get better and his defensive play did increase far more as now it sits at 42%. Yes, his offensive play fell four points, but realistically you do want a player losing four points if it means increasing 40% defensively.

I said it last year, and this year I’ll do the same. Kotkaniemi is overdue for a breakout season and after this successful playoff run we may see it happen in the 2021-22 season. Jesperi will play more minutes and will have better linemates and may as well play on the wing with Nick Suzuki. If he gets those chances and he does excel, Jesperi is destined to breakout and become that third overall potential player.

•••

Nashville Predators- Yakov Trenin, C

Age: 24

2020-21 Stats: 45 GP, 5G, 6A, 11 PTS

Career Stats: 66GP, 7G, 10A, 17 PTS

2020-21 WAR: 51%

(Photo Credit: NHL)

I cannot stress enough how valuable two way forwards are in today's NHL. Yakov Trenin is one of those valuable and underrated defensive forwards who bring so much to the table and nobody cares to acknowledge it. Sure, his offensive is a massive struggle and his shooting isn’t where an average NHL player should be, but his value is there and he is a valuable asset to the Nashville Predators.

11 points in 45 games may not be something that you want to feast your eyes on, but that 95% on his evaluated defence holds his ship up. He knows how to play defensive hockey and he always shows his 100% in his own zone. If you look at his previous career statistics throughout the NHL, AHL, and QMJHL, he never put up crazy or eye-catching numbers. They always stayed on the surface and they always were average. Even his time in the KHL before the start of the regular NHL season didn’t see him record too many points. (7 in 21).

So why did his low numbers give him that second round draft pick potential and pick in 2015? The simple answer, and the already answered answer, is because his defensive play is special. He’s such an underrated defensive player and like mentioned earlier, high points doesn’t mean good. A defensive player is also a good player, and nowadays defence shouldn’t be undervalued because it’s such a big part of hockey.

That being said, Yakov Trenin may never put up high numbers, but next year will be his breakout year where he will play some of the best hockey of his life. I hope people will start to see this Chelyabinsk-born forward’s potential as a defensive player and we may as well see him live up to it next year. His WAR percentile may skyrocket to 80%, although his points may be in the 30 range.

•••

New Jersey Devils- Mikhail Maltsev, LW

Age: 23

2020-21 Stats: 33 GP, 6G, 3A, 9PTS

Career Stats: 33 GP, 6G, 3A, 9 PTS

2020-21 WAR: 47%

(Photo credit: NHL)

I must admit New Jersey’s choices were very limited and there weren’t a lot of players to pick from. The player that I do think may exceed expectations and take his game to the next level is Russian born winger Mikhail Maltsev.

In the 2020-21 season the New Jersey Devils finally brought in their 2016 fourth round draft pick into the NHL after one AHL season and two KHL seasons. Maltsev was coming off of a mediocre season in the AHL the year before joining the Devils. Maltsev had 21 points in 49 games played there and since the Devils were still in a rebuild going into the NHL season, they wanted to give Maltsev the opportunity to prove himself at the NHL level.

Maltsev used that opportunity well and landed 33 games with the team while scoring six goals and three assists. His advanced metrics were very average, but on a team like New Jersey that isn’t exactly a bad team.

Maltsev’s WAR percentile ranked at 47%, just three points off of the average player. His EV OFF ended the season at 49% and his EV DEF at 51%. These advanced stats show hat Maltsev is nothing north and nothing south of an average player in the National Hockey League. Obviously there is room for improvement as he’s only 23, but some would say he exceeded expectations already after looking at his previous stats.

A breakout season for Maltsev is quite unlikely, but after looking at the rest of the Devils roster, I came to the conclusion that if it's anyone that breaks out in New Jersey, it’ll be Maltsev. Mikhail won’t be a star, but more of an average bottom six forward and next year we may see him record around 30 points in a full season. It’s not crazy statistics, but a breakout season nonetheless.

•••

New York Islanders- Anthony Beauvillier, LW

Age: 24

2020-21 Stats: 47 GP, 15G, 13A, 28 PTS

Career Stats: 333GP, 81G, 74A, 155 PTS

2020-21 WAR: 80%

(Photo credit: Jim McIsaac)

An already underrated player, AB (is what we will call Beauvillier) had 28 points in 47 games this year along with a fantastic playoffs where he notched 13 points in 19 games played. Everything about AB screams top six forward, from his basic standpoint of statistics and his advanced analytics.

AB’s stats have staggered throughout his career, but in the end he only gets better with time. Since the 2018-19 NHL season, AB’s WAR percentile rank has gone up from 49% to 80% (31% improval), his EV OFF has gone up from 78% to 84% (6% improval), his EV DEF has gone up from 30% to 84% (54% improval) and finally his shot and finishing improved by 13% going from 49% to 62%.

This constant improval is a sign that AB may be one of those players that consistently improve throughout his career without end. Yes, I am aware he is still in his prime and that he’s young, players like this improve constantly. The difference is that AB has never had a season where he fell off or took a break production wise at all. AB may be one of those gems that you don’t even know you have until you don’t have him anymore, that’s why the Islanders should prioritize him and his contract extension this summer instead of the other players they have expiring. It’s understandable that they may not get to keep everyone, but AB should be the player that the Isles should focus on this off-season.

If given a semi-lucrative contract, we may as well see AB gain confidence and finally break out into a top scoring winger on Mathew Barzal’s line next season. The stage is set for AB to exceed expectations and finally break out into a 60-70 point player next year, and if he doesn’t lay back and relax too much, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him become an elite level player.

•••

New York Rangers- Ryan Lindgren, D

Age: 23

2020-21 Stats: 51 GP, 1G, 15A, 16 PTS

Career Stats: 116 GP, 2G, 28A, 30 PTS

2020-21 WAR: 70%

(Photo Credit: @NYRangers/twitter)

It was only recently when the new GM of the New York Rangers, Chris Drrury, signed 23 year-old defenceman Ryan Lindgren to a generous nine million dollar contract that would last him three years. Most fans knew that this was a good contract, but to the ones that don’t, may need some areas explained to them.

The most important one that I personally see is age and potential. We’ve seen only 116 games worth of Ryan Lindgren so far, so the sample size isn’t exactly the biggest one, but it’s enough to get a good understanding on how good he is. At 23 years of age, it took him quite a while to crack an NHL lineup as he spent time in the AHL and the NCAA. Those extra years were needed greatly and it certainly grew his game because the player we see now is rewarding.

That leads me into another reason why it’s a good contract: his skill and his defensive talent. For the most part I may agree that he needs to work on his offence and goal scoring because two goals in over 150 career games isn’t a stat you glare your eyes at, but in his defence Ryan Lindgren gets primary assists like his life depends on it. Lindgren’s shot and goal scoring needs a lot of help and improvement, but thankfully that defensive play of his makes him his money.

Lingren’s evaluated defence currently resides at 80% which is admirable, but to become fully elite defensively it needs improvement. Since he is 23 and he’s got many more years of development, that shouldn’t be a major issue for now. The improvement from the 2019-20 season for Ryan was heavily noticeable as all of his skills improved. His defensive and offensive play skyrocketed and his WAR percentile rank shot up from 47% to 70%. Those are the types of improvements you want to see from young players.

This off-season Lindgren said he would work on his offensive play including his shot which leads us to believe that next year those points and offensive numbers will pile up to give him his very own breakout season. That contract extension helps too, as it gives Lindgren a wave of excitement and motivation to do better and become a better player in every aspect of the game.

•••

Ottawa Senators- Victor Mete, D

Age: 23

2020-21 Stats: 28 GP, 1G, 4A, 5 PTS

Career Stats: 199 GP, 5G, 31A, 36 PTS

2020-21 WAR: 68%

(Photo Credit: Senators twitter)

Montreal placing Victor Mete on waivers may have been a massive mistake by the management. Ever since Mete joined the Senators he’s been exceeding on almost every level. His nifty and quick moves have helped him get past opponents and in fashionable ways as well. He’s also continued to improve his shutdown play on the blue line and down, and even his offensive talent has spiked up.

It may be a crazy thought, but what kind of an impact could Mete have made in the payoffs for the Habs? While it may be true that the Canadiens have too many defencemen to count, Mete should not have been let go for free. They let a 23 year old improving defenceman with defensive (and a tad bit offensive) skill go for literally nothing to a divisional rival. It may be possible that Mete’s game would never become noticeable in Montreal, but nonetheless Mete’s value is decently high.

Victor has improved overall from the 20219-20n season even though his EV OFF fell off quite a bit. With young defencemen adjusting to new places that is completely normal and not something you’d want to pay close attention to. That’s why next year, it’s highly likely that Mete gains a bigger role in Ottawa than he ever had in Montreal and he not only has the best season of his career, but also stuns the league and becomes a 30-35 point defenceman with an EV DEF sitting in the 80-90 range.

•••

Philadelphia Flyers- Philippe Myers, D

Age: 24

2020-21 Stats: 44 GP, 1G, 10A, 11 PTS

Career Stats: 115 GP, 6G, 23A, 29 PTS

2020-21 WAR: 44%

(Photo Credit: NHL)

It shocks me how this fantastic young defenceman went undrafted. Of course his numbers in the QMJHL may have been underwhelming, but as the years went on he only managed to get better and better. The journey to the NHL for Myers wasn’t an easy one whatsoever, but in the end the Flyers should be more than thankful that they ended up with a gifted 6’5 player for relatively free.

Myers didn’t play an NHL game until he was 21, but for an undrafted player that is surely impressive. Myers didn’t make an impact immediately because he was obviously still adjusting from the jump from the QMJHL to the pro leagues, but after about one year of bouncing around from the NHL and AHL, Myers was given the permanent spot on the Flyers roster. Ever since then, his statistics have gone all over the place, like the Philadelphia Flyers, but overall he’s made his mark in the NHL.

Point production isn’t exactly his strong suit, but for defencemen around the league it appears to be the same. After quite the fall off after last season, Myers is surely going to have the best season of his career and not only show up defensively like he normally does, but if played with high scoring players he may as well earn himself a breakout year and record up to as many as 35 points. That is if the Flyers are smart and give the youngster ice time and the proper development.

•••

Pittsburgh Penguins- Teddy Blueger, C/W

Age: 26

2020-21 Stats: 43 GP, 7G, 15A, 22 PTS

Career Stats: 140 GP, 22G, 32A, 54 PTS

2020-21 WAR: 60%

(Photo credit: THW)

When making the decision for Pittsburgh, it was not easy because the players that could breakout, have yet to play 25 career games. The choice had to end up being Latvian native Teddy Blueger.

Many will say that his breakout season was last season, and I tend to agree. He may never excel to the best of his abilities ever again, and that's strictly talking about defence.

Blueger’s EV DEF was at 90% this season which shows how good of a defensive player he is, but as his offence sat at 4% that is troubling for a forward. That being said I don’t see his defence ever being that high again, but to make up for it his offensive stats may improve next year. It won’t be a drastic improvement, but hsi shooting and playmaking abilities will improve and we may see his EV OFF rise to 20%.

•••

San Jose Sharks- John Leonard, LW/RW

Age: 22

2020-21 Stats: 44 GP, 3G, 10A, 13 PTS

Career Stats: 44 GP, 3G, 10A, 13 PTS

2020-21 WAR: 26%

(Photo Credit: Photo by Brandon Magnus/NHLI via Getty Images)

More personal bias comes into play here with John Leonard. Leonard was very impactful for the San Jose Sharks organization this season all thanks to his defensive play. This may sound like a crazy stat, but Leonard’s evaluated defence was 91%, which happened to be the best out of anyone on the Sharks roster this season.

Although he helped out majorly in the D zone, he struggled offensively greatly. Only three goals in 44 games is a red flag for the 22 year-old winger. The Sharks weren’t a good team whatsoever this season, and to have anyone excel in any aspect of the game is rare. Especially when it’s defensively. Leonard did exactly that.

Even though he was defensively gifted he ended the season with the WAR percentile at 26%. That is due to the fact that it was his first and only NHL season so far,and if he continues to stay this way he may as well get better with time. Leonard showed a ton of promise after this season even if he didn’t show up on the scoreboard too often.

Can the Sharks play him next season? Yes, I would expect them to do so especially since he’s so young and he’s still got a lot left to give. The Sharks won’t be a playoff team once again next year therefore causing a poor roster. It may get better in free agency, or it may not if the management decides to continue their rebuild in a “suck really badly” strategy like the Red Wings have.

If they continue to do that, Leonard will get more minutes next season and his offensive numbers will improve and we may as well see Leonard start to catch his rhythm alongside the better players in San Jose and finally start to get recognition for his skill. Guaranteed, his defensive statistics may not be like the ones this year but that isn’t a reason as to why they won’t be impressive next season. The future is bright for Leonard, even if he does spend a lot of it in San Jose. John Leonard isn’t a regular roster player on the better teams at this current time, but a year into the future he may as well be.

•••

St. Louis Blues- Robert Thomas, C/RW

Age: 22

2020-21 Stats: 33 GP, 3G, 9A, 12 PTS

Career Stats: 169 GP, 22G, 65A, 87 PTS

2020-21 WAR: 59%

(Photo credit: THW)

When looking back at Thomas’ 2020-21 season only one word comes to mind, and that word is “frustrating”. After a career high in goals and points in the 2019-20 season it was finally time for Robert Thomas to take his game a higher level and become the 60 point player he was once said to be. That failed miserably. Thomas suffered offensively and was brought down to the fourth line in St. Louis.

Robert started the season out on the Blues’ second line right wing, and as the year progressed he suffered injuries and started to lose all his momentum. At one point Robert Thomas was scratched for multiple games due to his lack of performance. It was obvious not only Robert was disappointed and upset with himself, but the Blues were too. Now that he is an upcoming RFA, the Blues management has some big questions to answer and a lot of responsibility to answer for. What will Thomas’ next contract look like? Will the Blues be stuck with another bridge deal that may end up horribly for them? All of these questions will have to be answered soon as Robert Thomas currently doesn’t have a contract for next season.

After a horrible season like this one, contract negotiations will be nothing less than confusing and questionable. After a tough season such as the one Thomas had, there will be basically no way that he ends up receiving an expensive long term deal that lasts him 6-8 years. The St. Louis Blues may not want to jump on an expensive contract right away especially after the season Robert had. Realistically, Robert Thomas’ camp may ask for a cheap 2-3 million dollars, but the length will be no longer than two years.

A comeback season is highly likely next year, but not only that but also a breakout season is likely. It’s tough to predict what kind of aplayer Robert Thomas will be three or four years down the road, but being a good player isn’t out of the question. A hiccup in his game will only mean a bigger and brighter comeback, and with that comeback will happen a career best of 65-70 points. Rushing him onto the first line right away next year may stunt his growth, and Thomas seems like the type of player that gets better by making his way up the ranks. Therefore after such a horrendous season and possibly a weaker contract, we may see him rip up the league completely. If he receives a one year deal and agrees to sign it, that may as well be a death wish to St. Louis’ cap space because we all know how young players are in a contract year. They will do anything and everything to the best of their abilities to end up with an expensive and long term contract at the end of the day.

•••

Tampa Bay Lightning- Ross Colton, C/W

Age: 24

2020-21 Stats: 30 GP, 9G, 3A, 12 PTS

Career Stats: 30 GP, 9G, 3A, 12 PTS

2020-21 WAR: 92%

(Photo credit: ABC)

If I had a nickel for every time the Tampa Bay Lightning got a fantastic player out of absolutely nowhere I’d be a millionaire. Seriously though, where do these guys keep coming from? It’s almost like they have these guys stored somewhere and randomize a list to see who gets the call up and starts to play like an NHL veteran.

This year it was Ross Colton who took the leap and not only became a gritty and mediocre scoring player from being a decent AHL forward, but also scored the only goal of the game in game five of the Stanley Cup finals, which happened to be the winning goal too. Ross only played 30 games this season, but was it really enough?

The short and sweet answer to that is no. Ross Colton is now an NHLer who deserves a regular spot on the roster. Tampa noticed his potential, and brought him in from their AHL team to finally gain a spot on the team. Colton only played 30 games in the regular season, but ended up playing all 23 games for the Bolts in the playoffs.

Colton was drafted by the Lightnin in the fourth round of the 2016 NHL entry draft, but then again didn’t play his first career game until 2021. It took him five years to finally make it onto an NHL team, but it was sure as heck rewarding. Almost everything about Colton is perfect. He’s good offensively, far above average defensively and has an elite shot and an elite goal scoring ability. His contract does expire this year, therefore he will most likely get renewed by the Bolts for a cheap and short term deal. Nothing more than one million dollars and three years.

Next year Colton will take a further step and finally break out. With the possible roster moves Tampa will be forced to make, Colton might have to take the step to the third line and make his mark there. Colton can very well record 40 points next season playing with great teammates, and be worthy of achieving his well deserved breakout season.

•••

Toronto Maple Leafs- Rasmus Sandin, D

Age: 21

2020-21 Stats: 9 GP, 0G, 4A, 4 PTS

Career Stats: 37 GP, 1G, 11A, 12 PTS

2020-21 WAR: N/A

(Photo credit: Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images)

I’m not ashamed to say that I love the way Rasmus Sandin looked this season, even if he only played nine games. If Rasmus hasn’t landed a permanent spot on the Leafs roster next October, it’s time to move on from him. Not because he hasn’t lived up to his potential but because he deserves so much better. Hey Toronto! Stop wasting a young player’s talent in the press box and let him play!

Everything about Rasmus Sandin screams potential. He’s not only amazing defensively, he can score goals and break the puck out like his life depends on it. He’s a fantastic young player who is completely ready to take the plunge as a regular roster player. I am confident enough to say that by the year 2025 Rasmus Sandin will be one of the best defencemen in the NHL. Maybe not top 10 good, but more than comfortably in the top 20. That will all happen with time, but it won’t happen if the Leafs don’t play him. Earlier this year he was rumoured out of Toronto and possibly on his way out to find a team where he could play. It was a good idea by Kyle Dubas not to trade him because what Sandin gave to the team in the playoffs was nothing short of spectacular. Even though he only scored one goal in five games, he brought grit, physicality and great defensive responsibility to the table.

I love the way Sandin plays because it reminds me of young Niklas Kronwall. The physicality may not compare, but the skill level is there. Toronto should give him a spot on their third defence line next year, and with his confidence it wouldn’t surprise me to see him work his way up to line number two.

The graph above us shows that Sandin has a 100% chance of becoming an NHL player in the future, and a 67% chance of becoming a star. Those are odds I agree with. Everything about Sandin screams future star, and I can’t wait for him to turn some heads next year when he finally breaks out.

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Vancouver Canucks- Tyler Motte, LW/C

Age: 26

2020-21 Stats: 24 GP, 6G, 3A, 9 PTS

Career Stats: 211 GP, 28G, 19A, 47 PTS

2020-21 WAR: 70%

(Photo credit: SBNation)

Tyler Motte is the definition of a workhorse in today's NHL. Injuries will drag him down, especially this season, but he always shows up when he plays. He works so hard that nobody else can catch up to his compete level. Motte always scores big goals no matter when it is. He knows the word clutch, believe it or not his middle name is clutch. Don’t search that up…

For real, Motte is one fantastic and hard working player. Vancouver is his third team now and he’s only played in five NHL seasons and 216 games. After signing a contract extension in Free Agency with Vancouver, he basically made it his home. He’s proclaimed that he’s played his best hockey here and that is something you cannot argue against. He doesn’t get too many points but his work in the bottom six is more than noticeable and in a positive way. He helps in almost every single way except the powerplay.

Motte kills penalties in Vancouver and with 68% on the penalty kill, he’s one of Vancouver’s best penalty killers. He also has a fantastic shot which sometimes doesn't go in, but when it does it’s pleasant to watch. In reality Motte won’t put up more than 35 points in a season in his career, but he can play like a player with nothing to lose. He shows up every game and leaves it out all on the ice and impresses everyone. Not to mention he’s a very quick skater with very flashy hands that help him deke around opponents and bring the puck into the O zone and then generate chances there.

Without injuries, Tyler Motte is an underrated bottom six forward in the NHL and he truly is a gem for the Canucks. The fact that he panned out when he arrived in Vancouver was lucky, but that isn't bad. Vancouver’s helped Motte so much with his development and he’s helped out Vancouver in every which way. That’s why nex year, if played a full 82 game season, he may have the best season of his career and finally receive attention for his underrated skill.

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Vegas Golden Knights-Dylan Coghlan, D

Age: 23

2020-21 Stats: 29 GP, 3G, 3A, 6 PTS

Career Stats: 29 GP, 3G, 3A, 6 PTS

2020-21 WAR: 27%

(Photo credit: Heidi Fang/Las Vegas Review-Journal)

Dylan Coghlan is another player who is hard to believe that went undrafted. Best known for his two way game, Dylan joined the Vegas Golden Knights in 2018 but didn’t make the regular roster until 20201. Coghlan spent most of his time in the AHL developing his game in hopes of achieving his dream of paying in the NHL.

When Dylan finally got called up by the Golden Knights from the taxi squad earlier in the season he wasn’t thought highly of. That’s until the Golden Knights liked what they saw and gave him more ice time. At 23 years of age you don’t exactly expect an undrafted player to succeed therefore the expectations aren’t too high.

The issue with Coghlan isn’t his offensive skill but more so his defensive play. A simple rule for defencemen is that if you are a defencemen your job is to defend. Coghlan isn’t too good at that. His evaluated defence sits at 6% which makes you go blind. That is some of the worst looking defence for a defenceman in the NHL and it ‘s something that needs to be fixed as soon as possible. If Coghlan can focus his training in the off-season and training camp to his defensive work, he may have that breakout season that he deserves. Coghlan will never be a high scoring defenceman, but he will be capable of scoring 30-40 points a year in the future, but that is only if he stays in the NHL, and the only way he could do that is if he works on his defensive skill.

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Washington Capitals- Daniel Sprong, W

Age: 24

2020-21 Stats: 42 GP, 13G, 7A, 20 PTS

Career Stats: 139 GP, 32G, 18A, 50 PTS

2020-21 WAR: 86%

(Photo credit: Scott Taetsch-USA TODAY Sports)

As an underrated bottom six player, Daniel Sprong is a natural born sniper with an elite shot and a gifted goal scoring ability, but his puck luck doesn’t favour him. Like players we have seen before, Daniel Sprong hasn’t played in the league for too long (139 games, 4 seasons) but has played for multiple teams. Those teams include the Pittsburgh Penguins, the Anaheim Ducks and most recently the Washington Capitals. Sprong hasn’t been more than a 20 point player, but notably his seasons have more goals than assists. That’s because Sprong knows how to score goals and he’s got a heck of a shot.

Jfresh’s player cards shows us that Daniel Sprong is very average offensively and his defence lacks quite a lot, but his G/60 is at 99%, and his shot or finishing is at 96%. Sprong is a fantastic goal scorer and he hasn’t quite found his game yet. That may be because of where he plays, a change of scenery can be beneficial, but after three different teams in four years it feels unlikely.

So what is it with Sprong? It may be the opportunities he’s been given. He’s never played ona good line with good players, and he’s had his issues finding his games at points but the difference is that rookies and youngsters find themselves getting marinated on the top lines with star players to get their rhythms, but Sprong has never gotten those chances. If the Caps would finally play him more often and on the top lines he may start to score like he did in the QMJHL where he had more goals than games. Once the Capitals make that commitment or maybe even simply just test Sprong out on top lines, he will become a great player. The chances of him being an elite level goal scorer have slipped away, but that doesn’t mean that there isn’t hope for Sprong to be a good player.

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Winnipeg Jets- David Gustafsson, C

Age: 21

2020-21 Stats: 4 GP, 0G, 0A, 0 PTS

Career Stats: 26 GP, 1G, 0 PTS

2020-21 WAR: N/A

(Photo credit: Jonathan Kozub / NHLI via Getty Images)

Man, am I glad that Gustafsson has played 26 games. I love Gustaffson’s game and I think he’s got some serious potential. After watching him play and watching some of his games in the AHL, I’ve gotten the sense that Gustafsson is a good comparison to Kevin Hayes. They both excel in their two way game but the offence is absolutely beautiful. It’s not only the points but it’s also the strategies and playmaking abilities. If the Jets are smat they’ll give him some more time in the AHL, then bring him up to the NHL in two to three years when he’s ready to become a second line center.

You read that right, David Gustafsson is a future second liner and I’m not ashamed to admit it. He’s a young and a very smart hockey player who knows the game like the back of his hand. His game smarts are so quick and the fact that he can make such intelligent and impressive strategies on the ice at that pace is impressive. As for leadership I’m not too sure how he does in that area, but another comparison that strikes my head is Bo Horvat.

Gustafsson was given a great opportunity to learn the ways of the NHL in 2019-20 when the Winnipeg Jets played him on their fourth line for 22 games. In that span he scored only one goal, but you cannot blame him. He was 19 a the time and he was only drafted one year before that in the second round. To say the Jets rushed him into an NHL spot would be an understatement, but it’s good that they didn’t hang on to him in the NHL for too long and let him develop his game in the AHL.

Since then Gustafsson has bounced around from the AHL to the NHL to the Swe-1 and back to the AHL. Gustafsson is all about opportunities and growing better as a player and that’s what you love to see. With his nonstop training and development, I think we see Gustafsson make a surprising push for the Calder trophy in the 2021-22 season and we see him turn some heads in the NHL.

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David Gustafsson closes our list of breakout candidates for each team. Now realistically, there are usually ten-or-so players who actually break out and become stars each year, so going 31 for 31 wouldn’t be an obvious thing. But that doesn’t mean breaking out won’t be off the table for these players in the future. In fact, while making this list I had some doubts because a lot of these players may not break out next year or the year after, but I’m confident in all 31 of these players in breaking out and exceeding their games and I’m sure that sooner or later they will all achieve it.